No more worlds to conquer

 There is a famous quote referring to the final campaign of Alexander the Great "And Alexander wept, for he had no more worlds to conquer". I have always assumed this had some classical, or at least renaissance, origin but, having researched its source for this blog, it appears to have originated, at least in its now accepted form, with Alan Rickman playing the baddie in the Hollywood blockbuster Die Hard!!

But of course Alexander, having won Afghanistan did have more worlds he could have tried to conquer but, in truth, his army, having looked at the formidable task of invading India concluded it was beyond even them and mutinied. Alexander had no choice but to withdraw. A couple of years later he was deid. At the grand old age of 32.

So, interesting though this is, what relevance does it have to the matter I usually write about, Scottish politics?

This weekend the SNP are meeting in Conference in Aberdeen, their first in person Conference for three years. This is supposedly because of Coronavirus but that did not stop the other Parties having in person events last year.

As you look on from afar, you can see why they were so keen to avoid such a gathering, for the whole thing has a distinct fin-de-siecle feel to it. 

Since 2006 the SNP have been a Party moving forward. They were either anticipating winning elections or celebrating having done so. Sure, there has been the occasional setback but none fatal, all of the momentum was with them. But they have now reached the end of the road. And postponing conferences has now run out of mileage as well.

I kind of anticipated more tub thumping about their prospects in the Supreme Court, at least as red meat for their rank and file. Instead however they seemed strangely resigned to losing there and acutely aware that the lunatic tactic of a self declared de facto referendum delivers nothing if they, exceptionally improbably, win and disaster if, overwhelmingly likely, they lose. "You'll have had your second referendum" will be the unanimous declaration of the opposition.

And then there is the prospect of a Labour Government. It is noticeable that the Nats biggest reverse since 2006 was in 2010, when Labour looked that they might win and had a credible candidate for  Prime Minister. The last time since then it turns out.  

Come (most likely) 2024, that will not be the case. Now, the Nats can try and sit this General Election  out, declaring they have no interest in whether Labour or the Tories win, that they are engaged, instead, in a de facto Referendum but I suspect the Scottish electorate will not share that view.  And any but idiots in their leadership have surely worked that out. And to be fair, at a leadership level, they have a good number of people who are not idiots.

So, I suspect they will have to find a way of getting themselves off the hook Sturgeon, it appears almost unilaterally, has hung them on. Watching that will prove entertaining, not least as it will force them to spell out expressly whether they might vote with the Tories to bring down a Labour Government. A call which, if it entails doing that without a second referendum, has the potential to cause an actual split. When Brown told the SNP Conference that for Nationalists there was nothing to choose between a Labour or Tory Government, while most people thought "Whit!" he had a ready audience in the hall. 

Except if not the de facto referendum, then what? There has never been much doubt that Holyrood could not call a unilateral referendum but within six weeks or so the Supreme Court will settle that conclusively. Beyond that neither Labour or the Tories will grant them a s.30, so, to quote not Alan Rickman this time but Roy Orbison, "It's over".

And I wonder if the cleverest of all the Nats doesn't know that better than anybody. As First Minister she has won every election she has fought. Interestingly, despite what people might think on Twitter, according to polling in today's Scotland on Sunday, virtually no other SNP politician has even 10% name recognition. If she was to go after the anticipated Supreme Court reverse she would depart, electorally, undefeated and avoid the potential of having to go after a significant reverse at the next General Election. That surely has to be tempting prospect. 

Alexander was forced to retreat by the mutiny of his army. I wonder if the Yes army might be forced to retreat by the mutiny of its general?