Scottish Labour: Waiting for May 26 is not a viable strategy.

 On 31st October, after practising the law for 46 years, I fully retired.

I had various plans for my time but in truth, so far, have realised none of them, I haven't even yet managed to get my bus pass,

But you can't just sit about doing nothing forever so I have decided to return to blogging.

And my first subject is one very close to my heart. The strategy and ulttimate electoral fate of the Scottish Labour Party 

And I worry about both of these.

There clearly was an assumption, post 4th July, that all we needed to do between then and May 2036 was to do very little, The SNP were supposed to be a busted flush and the wave of goodwill which normally accompanies a new (UK) Government would spill over sufficiently to Scotland see us over the line.

Except neither of these things have come to pass.

I start with the situation in Scotland alone.. There has been much attention to the  SNP's recent run of by=election losses. But the missed factor I think is that while the SNP vote has been down in most of these it has remained substantial and that many of their defeats, by us, we also saw a decline in our vote albeit generally a less serious one. The big gainers, when they have stood, is inclined to be the new kids on the block. Reform UK, who despite having no significant presence in Scotland, and indeed not yet even a Scottish leader, are generally polling at upwards of 10% and on occasion nearly 20%. All the indications are that come 2026 they, at least as much as us, are likely to be a significant recipient of those no longer willing to vote SNP.

But, anyway, what alternative are we offering? On Wednesday, we had the budget. The time for opposition responses is much curtailed by the ludicrous rules of debate at Holyrood but, nonetheless, our response was little more than complaints the nationalists, where they were increasing spending, were not doing so enough, while in the relatively few areas they were reducing expenditure, they were wrong to do so. Although we were opposed to the budget, there was no suggestion how we would have proceeded differently. 

And that is a much wider criticism of our approach. All that we offer in public services is "more efficiency" without spelling out what that involves, let alone considering why, if that is so easy, the SNP haven't done it themselves.  The Auditor General has recent spelt out the strategic failure of the Scottish Government in spending money without knowing where that money is to come from in even the medium tierm. Do we agree with this criticism? If so what are we planning to do about it? The answer is silence as to commit to amending the big ticket items: free personal care, tuition fees, the Scottish Child Payment would all be, supposedly. unpopular. Leaving us as silent as the SNP as to their long term sustainability.  Even relatively minor changes, such as restoring prescription charges for the15% of the population who do not get them free in England, is not something we show any sign of being prepared to contemplate. And yet we continue to offer entirely uncosted pledges to spend "more" on local government and, more recently, to reintroduce the Winter Fuel Payment. 

The assumption is that we have to take this approach because the only Party we are truly in a contest is the SNP. But it is not nearly as simple as that. You can be confident the Tories will fight the 2026 Election on a platform that involves bringing Scottish rates of income tax in line with those in England. As will, I strongly suspect, Reform. It is difficult to see how we oppose this, now that English Rates are being set by a Labour Government, yet that is something else we don't seem to be engaged with.

And that then leads me to the problems passed to us by the wider UK political situation. Only a willfully blind Labour supporter could maintain that our first five months have been an unalloyed success. This past week's relaunch, after such a short period in Government, was unprecedented yet necessary.  It is not required here for me to analyse here here why that has been the case but, suffice to say, the prospect of us fighting Holyrood 26 during an extended honeymoon from Westminster 24 has gone. We need to face up to the fact that we will have to win in 26 thanks to our own efforts.

I close with a simple observation. Simply "not being our opponent(s)" has been tried in a very recent election as pretty much the only thing on offer. By Kamala Harris. We know the result of that exercise.