Sunday, 8 December 2019

My final election blog: A strangely British Election.

It has been a strangely British election in Scotland.

In 2015 and 2017 the UK General elections were essentially different events north and south of the border.

Here, there were "local" debates with the Scottish Party leaders up front and centre and distinctively different television coverage. That was to some extent the preference of all of the main Scottish Parties. The SNP naturally welcomed an assumption that Scotland was already semi-independent but the other three Parties also had a vested interest. Labour and the Libs assumed that their Scottish "brand" and leader had an appeal beyond the UK franchise. The Tories initially simply wanted to be seen to be "different" here but by 2017 had worked out that they possessed a Scottish leader with a  Heineken reach.

That was then however, this is now. Even in two and a half years we have a much changed media. Uniquely Scottish newspapers are in relative decline in relation to the readership of the Scottish editions of their UK based competitors and that does mean that coverage of the election has more of a UK tinge but, more importantly still, the BBC, still most peoples's source of news, has shuffled off much of its Scottish political coverage to a channel literally nobody watches. The SNP should perhaps have been more careful about what they wished for in that regard.

And then there are the specific circumstances of this contest applying to each of the four main Parties. On any view this is not so much a Tory election campaign as a Boris Johnson election campaign and the Scottish Tories have had little option but to buy into that. Johnson has been far more prominent here than either Cameron or May, interestingly directly taking on the nationalist mantra that "the Tories don't care about Scotland". That in turn has rather disguised the fact that the Scottish Tories don't actually have a permanent leader and freed up Ruth Davidson to play the role of a Scottish El Cid, taking the battle to where she wants to go without having to carry the burden of kingship.

Labour has also had to make a virtue of necessity. The absence of any identifiable Scottish leadership has left us with little alternative to Corbyn being here far more than in 2017, although he continues to feature little if at all in local campaign literature. By now the election here for Labour has become a struggle for survival, retaining as many "touching distance" second places as possible. Time will tell if this has worked.

And the Libs, led by a Scottish MP at Westminster, clearly have an interest in promoting her over giving Willie Rennie much more than a bit part this time round.

Finally, we have the SNP. Or should I say Nicola. For the rest of the Nats have been more or less invisible. Nicola seems to be on the UK telly just about every night, not as the voice of independence but as a sort of fantasy, social democratic, candidate for the position of a Remain Prime Minister. I am genuinely at a loss as to the purpose of this, for she is not seeking that position, indeed she is not seeking, at this election, any position at all. It also seems somewhat strange to effectively write off the votes of North East Scotland in pursuit of the votes of south east England.

Anyway, as I say, the net effect of this is that this has been the most British election in Scotland since at least 2010.

And that will have consequence.

It increasingly looks that there is going to be a UK Tory landslide and Tory landslides (or indeed Labour landslides, remember them?) do not pass parts of the country entirely by.

I started my election blogs by pointing out that the opening question at this election should not have been how many seats the Scottish Tories were going to lose lose but rather how many they were going to gain. How the press report matters is entirely a matter for them but I don't think that it is unfair to observe that, purely from the point of view of trade, Scottish political journalists have a vested interest in a narrative that the SNP are still going forward and that a second independence referendum remains very much on the horizon. That might explain why, even now, no-one has really been prepared to dive in to the inviting pool of seats the Tories might pick up. But there are in fact a good number.

And two things particularly favour the Tories this time.

In 2017 there was, in truth, little tactical voting. Where the Tories picked up seats the Labour vote actually went up. Where the Tories got close, and were clearly close, it also remarkably held up. But since then the nationalist cause, on the streets at least, has developed a much more distinctive  republican tone, including overt parallels to Irish republicanism. There is a certain section of the electorate who really don't buy into this but who for reasons of class or family history have been previously reluctant to ever vote Tory. My own view however is that these people are open to the Tory call to be "lent" their vote to stop a second independence referendum. Particularly as their objections to nationalism mirror their objections to Corbynism. That's not just my view however, it is pretty much every piece of Tory literature is saying. For a reason.

The second thing which favours the Tories is that they are going to win. And there is a certain logic, with that as a given, that it favours Scotland to have large numbers on the winning side. Playing the sort of role that was probably most famously played in the past  by George Younger. But, additionally, if the SNP are not going to hold the balance of power and if there is not going to be another referendum, what exactly, in a Westminster context, is their function? Moaning?

In 1979 the Scottish Tories got 31.4% of the Scottish popular vote. I think they will beat that in 2019.
31.4% brought them 31% of the seats then available (22 of 71). I think that's pretty much where we are now. So my final election prediction? Labour 3; Lib-Dems 5; Tories 18; SNP 33.


31 comments:

  1. Very interesting. I actually think Labour could do slightly better than that. Think Rutherglen and Midlothian are the only write offs.

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  2. Hi Ian, fascinating blog post.

    I think you are probably correct in this call.

    You might be interested in reading my political betting post, which is based in your forecast, from my personal blog.

    https://forecastingintelligence.org/2019/11/07/political-betting-alert-scottish-conservative-election-gain-opportunity/

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  3. I've enjoyed these blogs.

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  4. Hello, though I read your blog this is the first time I've made any comment. It's not an earth shattering observation. I cannot fault your reasoning. I think that the cards may well fall as you foresee and I will watch/listen diligently to the relative squirming and carping hubris that usually follows in the wake of our narrowly pluralistic acts of democracy. I can almost see the losers in my minds eye mounting their high horses, drawing their long knives and charging into full 'I told you so' and 'we was robbed' mode.

    ReplyDelete
  5. A very good read. I've said since 1995 our unity as the UK is our best protection against the encroachments of the EU when a Canadian told me not long before the Quebec independence of that year many Canadians saw their unity as the defence against America's encroachments. I realise at once what was meant. Many other Canadians since then have told me the same. If Quebec had voted independence, the English speaking provinces either said of her would eventually become American states. The same would happen to us. if we are broken up into our constituent countries we will be subsumed into that Franco-German dominated federal union scheduled for the future.

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    I've gotten back with my ex boyfriend with the help of Dr.Great the best spell caster online and i highly recommends Dr.Great to anyone in need of help!.. I want to testify of how i got back my boyfriend after he breakup with me, we have been together for 3 years, recently i found out my boyfriend was having an affair with another Girl, when i confronted him, it led to quarrels and he finally broke up with me, i tried all i could to get him back but all to no avail until i saw a post in a relationship forum about a spell caster who helps people get back their lost love through Love spell, at first i doubted it but decided to give it a try, when i contacted this spell caster via his email, and he told me what to do and i did it, Then he did a Love spell for me. 28 hours later, my boyfriend really called me and told me that he miss me so much, So Amazing!! So that was how he came back that same day, with lots of love and joy, and he apologized for his mistake, and for the pain he caused me. Then from that day, our relationship was now stronger than how it were before, All thanks to DR.GREAT. he is so powerful and i decided to share my story on the Internet that Dr.Great real and powerful spell caster who i will always pray to live long to help his children in the time of trouble, if you are here and you need your Ex back or your husband moved to another woman, do not cry anymore, contact this powerful spell caster now. Here’s his contact: Email him at: infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com, you can also call him or add him on WhatsApp: +2348118829899 check out his  blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com you can also visit my blog at http://donnakelvin150.over-blog.com, THANKS TO DR.GREAT..  

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    Replies
    1. Having issues with your fiancee could be so disturbing especially when she is the one you have loved all your life and she has been the reason you are still alive. I started having issues with my fiancee for some months didn't know what the problem was or what was going on not until i discovered that another guy was involved i didn't know what to do i was confused, did all i could but nothing was happening for me until i saw an article of one great spell caster, who i told everything i was going through at that time and he told me not to panic for everything will be okay, that if truly we were meant to be that she is going to come back. I did everything he told me to do and today we are back together married with two beautiful kids i cant thank this man enough Dr Raymond. Whats App> +2348118116281  Email> swiftspellcast@gmail.com

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  15. I want to let everyone here know that Spell casting really works. However it wouldn't have been possible for me to get my ex back without the kind support and help of LORD PADMAN,whose his Website: https://padmanspell.com/index-3.html i would like to extend my golden sincere thanks to LORD PADMAN who helped me to get my ex back. i want to thank LORD PADMAN the great spell caster who is so powerful and good in spell casting. I am highly indebted to LORD PADMAN for his help in getting my ex back. My boyfriend left me for another girl, i was so heart broken so i contacted a friend who introduced me to the great LORD PADMAN who have helped her before to get her boyfriend back so i did all he asked me to do. Surprisingly 48 hours later as he promised my boyfriend called me and asked me to forgive him we are back together living happily. Don't let anybody to deceive you spell casting works. Contact him through his website: https://padmanspell.com/index-3.html and Email: padmanlovespell@yahoo.com. (info@padmanspell.com) OR Whatsapp +19492293867 https://twitter.com/padman_dr . thank you so much sir

    ReplyDelete
  16. Having issues with your fiancee could be so disturbing especially when she is the one you have loved all your life and she has been the reason you are still alive. I started having issues with my fiancee for some months didn't know what the problem was or what was going on not until i discovered that another guy was involved i didn't know what to do i was confused, did all i could but nothing was happening for me until i saw an article of one great spell caster, who i told everything i was going through at that time and he told me not to panic for everything will be okay, that if truly we were meant to be that she is going to come back. I did everything he told me to do and today we are back together married with two beautiful kids i cant thank this man enough Dr Raymond. Whats App> +2348118116281  Email> swiftspellcast@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  17. MY Name Hanna Rosin, form, (USA) After 12years of marriage, me and my husband has been into one quarrel or the other until he finally left me and moved to California to be with another woman. I felt my life was over and my kids thought they would never see their father again. i tried to be strong just for the kids but i could not control the pains that torments my heart, my heart was filled with sorrows and pains because i was really in love with my husband. Every day and night i think of him and always wish he would come back to me, I was really upset and i needed help, so i searched for help online and I came across a website that suggested that Dr Osasu can help get ex back fast. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he told me what to do and i did it then he did a Love spell for me. 28 hours later, my husband really called me and told me that he miss me and the kids so much, So Amazing!! So that was how he came back that same day,with lots of love and joy,and he apologized for his mistake,and for the pain he caused me and the kids. Then from that day,our Marriage was now stronger than how it were before, All thanks to Dr Osasu . he is so powerful and i decided to share my story on the internet that Dr. Osasu real and powerful spell caster who i will always pray to live long to help his children in the time of trouble, if you are here and you need your Ex back or your husband moved to another woman, do not cry anymore, contact this powerful spell caster now. Here’s his contact
    Call/WhatsApp: +2347064365391
    Email: drosasu25@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  18. My husband and I have been married for about 7 yrs now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to notice some strange behavior from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone. He started coming home late from work, he hardly care about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about 2-3 days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help. As I was browsing through the Internet one day, I came across a website that suggested that Dr Great can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he did a spell for me. Two days later, my husband came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my family are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Great . If you need a spell caster that can cast a spell that truly works, I suggest you contact him. He will not disappoint you. This is his E-mail: 

    infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com

    WhatsApp +2348118829899

    Blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  19. My husband and I have been married for about 7 yrs now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to notice some strange behavior from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone. He started coming home late from work, he hardly care about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about 2-3 days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help. As I was browsing through the Internet one day, I came across a website that suggested that Dr Great can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he did a spell for me. Two days later, my husband came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my family are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr Great . If you need a spell caster that can cast a spell that truly works, I suggest you contact him. He will not disappoint you. This is his E-mail: 

    infinitylovespell@gmail.com or infinitylovespell@yahoo.com

    WhatsApp +2348118829899

    Blog http://infinitylovespell1.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  20. I recently saw a testimony about a spell caster of some sort in a blog I visit for relationship and dating counseling problems because i had been having serious issues with my boyfriend and we had been dating for six months,he just suddenly changed,he was returning my calls,he started cheating,he was hurting me in so many ways i never thought possible and I just thought I should try it maybe out of desperation of some sort ..and I contacted them..At first everything felt dreamy and unbelievable,their consultations and solution was a little bit easy and strange and I was scared a little cos I heard read and heard lots of stories of spell casters and i never really believed in magic..I played along with a little hope and faith and I was sent some few stuffs after everything and it worked like a miracle,everything went to a while new direction,I guess it was all good faith that made me read That particular post that faithful day..I hope they could help other people too like they did a little and I got everything I wanted and wished for my husband,my family and my life back their address is; Supernaturalspell1@gmail.com  Call him or add him on whatsapp via: +2348124644470 PRIEST WISDOM BLOG PAGE: https://supernaturalspell21.blogspot.com/

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  21. I am writing this comment with tears of joy. My marriage fell apart after 6 months because my mother In-law asked my husband to divorce me and marriage the woman she betroth to him as his wife. All this drama started happening in our marriage and my husband left me and our one month baby just so he could do as his mom wants him to.
    I was in tears and shattered for 6 months because I could not imagine my whole life crumbling in front of me. I could not continue with work and baby responsibilities so I quit working. Things became more difficult until my best friend advised me to meet a love doctor that fixed her marriage with a RETURN LOVER SPELL that works as fast as 12 hours after casting the spell. I concord and decided to contact this spell doctor and guess what. My husband came to my mom house with his family in less than 12 hours after casting the spell. Even his mom came back asking me for forgiveness and also to reconcile with my husband who left me. They have been coming for the past 3 days and now everyone is asking me to take him back. I am so grateful for what this love spell doctor has done for me. I am thinking of accepting his apologize and move on as family just as my mom advised.
    Anyone who wants their lover back should write to love doctor on Love Spell doctor on lovespelldoctor0@gmail.com
    God bless you as you find your happiness through this testimony.

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