Saturday 12 October 2019

2021

I've been to busy to do much blogging but to be honest I've also been at a loss as to what to blog about.

I know this is the weekend of the SNP Conference, so there will be once again much puffery about another Independence referendum over the next few days. But it has been clear for months, if not in truth forever, that whether there will be second such vote will depend on the outcome of the next Holyrood election. Which the Nationalists propose to hold in 2021.

And that to be honest suits the SNP. For their wiser heads know that virtually all polling indicates that, currently, they would lose such a contest. That's why they have quietly, last month, introduced the Scottish Elections (Reform) Bill for the precise purpose of postponing for a year the next Scottish General Election. Which, without this legislation, would otherwise be in May 2020.

If Nicola was serious about an early referendum what better way to advance her cause than by seeking and securing an express mandate for it in just over six months? Instead she is running away. The only strategic outcome the SNP leadership seek from their Aberdeen Conference is, for internal Party management reasons, to give the impression they are serious about an early contest when in reality they are quite the opposite.

I'll only say three other things in passing.

The first is to observe that, given it is an open secret that the date of his next court appearance will be 18th November, the Alex Salmond Indictment is likely to be served next week. It would be quite entertaining if that happened during the Conference.

The second is that by the next SNP Conference in the Spring there is every likelihood Salmond's trial will be over. So the possibility that this will be Nicola's last conference as Party leader seems strangely overlooked by the press.

And the third.......I'll come back to the third. For it is connected to my other theme today, inevitably, Brexit.

Predicting the next week is not easy because of the opacity of what is happening in the EU/UK negotiations but there seems at least a possibility that Boris will get a deal. For the purpose of what I say below, I will assume that to be the case.

Boris with a deal is a very different creature from Mrs May with a deal. Those Tory MP's who believe that "No deal" is actually the best outcome are truly small in number. The vast bulk of the "hold outers" on the May deal did so in the belief that someone else could get a better deal. Their problem is that this someone else was......Boris. So that argument goes away. And indeed some of them might actually persuade themselves that Boris's deal is better, although in truth it is at best only likely to be (slightly) different. The killer argument however for more or less all the Tories to get behind a deal is twofold. The alternative to Boris's deal is not no deal. It is extension. And extension leads not to a second referendum (there is still no Commons majority for that) but certainly to a General Election as a result of which a second referendum might become inevitable.

And also, if you think things through, the Tory manifesto at that election would be for the Boris deal, so those still opposed could hardly stand as Tory candidates. Indeed they might not be given any choice in that matter.

So everything says the Tories get behind a deal and while they might lose the DUP in the process they get back almost all the rebels and, it would appear, (this time) peel off sufficient Labour MPs to get the deal through the Commons.

So then what?

Well, obviously an election.

Although when might be a different matter. A done deal requires a sitting Commons to pass the necessary supporting legislation. So dissolution before 31st October seems unlikely. Dissolution after 31st October however takes the date of the Election into December. Never mind how the public might react to Christmas being "spoiled", the prospect of the weather intervening becomes a real prospect, even more so in January and February. Certainly there was a February election in 1974 but it was on the very last day of the month. So my money would be on March. That would also give the Tories the opportunity to promote the more popular of their policies, possibly even setting legislative bear traps for the opposition in the process.

But the other question is what happens to the opposition. Labour will probably stick with Corbyn and resign itself to disastrous defeat. One thing however is certain. If Corbynism, in truth essentially the politics of perpetual opposition, survives the man himself as the dominant strand of internal Labour opinion, then, if there hasn't been a realignment on the centre left before the election, there will most certainly be one afterwards. Even assuming Labour, initially, remains the principal opposition Party in the Commons. Not perhaps a big if but certainly a small if.

But here I come back to where I started, Scottish politics.

The assumption has been that the 2021 Holyrood election will at the very least deliver an SNP plurality and thus a continued Nationalist Government. A fair assumption. For while the nationalists conduct of the devolved administration has been pretty mediocre, as outlined most recently even by their Common Weal allies, Scottish Labour is currently in an unelectable condition, while the Tories remain toxic in urban west central Scotland. Where most people actually live. And the two together as an alternative administration is inconceivable.

My own suspicion is that the more managerial Nats wouldn't mind a 2021 result that denied them the votes for a second referendum (which they fear they would lose), so long as it delivered them the votes to remain in office. They are for playing the long, "inevitability", game.

But realignment would be realignment. A specifically anti populist, fact based, politics of the centre left. The politics of John Smith and Donald Dewar.  To actually get things done. That's my third point. And where better to put that to an early test than in Scotland in 2021?



25 comments:

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      Hello my name is Jenna i want to share my amazing experience with the greatest spell caster Priest Ade my husband was cheating on me and when i found out we had a fight which lead to him filling for a divorce i cried and fell sick when i was searching about love quotes online i saw people talking about him and his great work whose case was similar to mine they left his contact info i contacted him and he told me not to worry that after 24hrs he will cancel the divorce and be back to me after i did everything he asked me to do to my greatest surprise the next day evening it was my husband he knelt down begging me to accept him back,thank you once again Priest Ade you are indeed a blessing to me he can also help you contact ancientspiritspellcast@yahoo.com or ancientspiritspellcast@gmail.com 
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      Hello my name is Jenna i want to share my amazing experience with the greatest spell caster Priest Ade my husband was cheating on me and when i found out we had a fight which lead to him filling for a divorce i cried and fell sick when i was searching about love quotes online i saw people talking about him and his great work whose case was similar to mine they left his contact info i contacted him and he told me not to worry that after 24hrs he will cancel the divorce and be back to me after i did everything he asked me to do to my greatest surprise the next day evening it was my husband he knelt down begging me to accept him back,thank you once again Priest Ade you are indeed a blessing to me he can also help you contact ancientspiritspellcast@yahoo.com or ancientspiritspellcast@gmail.com 
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  12. I feel very happy to share my great and wonderful testimony with everyone on this site..: I was married for 4 years to my husband and all of a sudden another woman came into the picture he started hating me and he was abusive.but i still loved him with all my heart and wanted him at all cost.... He filed for divorce and my whole life was turning apart and i didn't know what to do, he moved out of the house and abandoned me and the kids... my very close friend told me about trying spiritual means to get my husband back and introduced me to a spell caster so i decided to try it. although i didn't believe in all those things then when he did the special prayers and spell, after 2 days, my husband came back and was pleading that he had realized his mistakes I just couldn't believe it, anyway we are back together now and we are happy in case anyone needs help here is his email address; Account
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  13. I feel very happy to share my great and wonderful testimony with everyone on this site..: I was married for 4 years to my husband and all of a sudden another woman came into the picture he started hating me and he was abusive.but i still loved him with all my heart and wanted him at all cost.... He filed for divorce and my whole life was turning apart and i didn't know what to do, he moved out of the house and abandoned me and the kids... my very close friend told me about trying spiritual means to get my husband back and introduced me to a spell caster so i decided to try it. although i didn't believe in all those things then when he did the special prayers and spell, after 2 days, my husband came back and was pleading that he had realized his mistakes I just couldn't believe it, anyway we are back together now and we are happy in case anyone needs help here is his email address; Account
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  14. My Dear friends online, My name is patricia jammie And I live in the USA, Texas, I have to give this miraculous testimony, which is so unbelievable until now. I had a problem with my Ex husband 2 years ago, which led to our break up. I was not myself again, I felt so empty inside me, my love and financial situation became worse, until a close friend of mine told me about a spell caster who helped her in the same problem too his name is Dr balbosa.my friend gave me the courage to contact him because i have never done such a thing before in my life.. I emailed the spell caster and I told him my problem and he responded back to me within 5 hours and he assured me that my husband will come back to me and  we are going to live peacefully and happily, he gave me some instructions to do and I did what he asked  me to do. to cut the long story short. Before I knew what was happening, the next day my husband gave me a call and told me that he is coming back to me and that he is sorry for what he did to me, I was surprised and I am so happy to have him back to me. The most interesting part of the story is that I am pregnant now for  him. Thanks to Dr balbosa for this wonderful work you did  for saving my marriage and for also saving others' own too. Continue your good work, If you are interested to contact the great spell caster EMAIL address: balbosasolutionhome@gmail.com or contact him on WHATSAPP/CALL +2347048047728...GOOD LUCK



    My Dear friends online, My name is patricia jammie And I live in the USA, Texas, I have to give this miraculous testimony, which is so unbelievable until now. I had a problem with my Ex husband 2 years ago, which led to our break up. I was not myself again, I felt so empty inside me, my love and financial situation became worse, until a close friend of mine told me about a spell caster who helped her in the same problem too his name is Dr balbosa.my friend gave me the courage to contact him because i have never done such a thing before in my life.. I emailed the spell caster and I told him my problem and he responded back to me within 5 hours and he assured me that my husband will come back to me and  we are going to live peacefully and happily, he gave me some instructions to do and I did what he asked  me to do. to cut the long story short. Before I knew what was happening, the next day my husband gave me a call and told me that he is coming back to me and that he is sorry for what he did to me, I was surprised and I am so happy to have him back to me. The most interesting part of the story is that I am pregnant now for  him. Thanks to Dr balbosa for this wonderful work you did  for saving my marriage and for also saving others' own too. Continue your good work, If you are interested to contact the great spell caster EMAIL address: balbosasolutionhome@gmail.com or contact him on WHATSAPP/CALL +2347048047728...GOOD LUCK

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  15. My life is back!!! After 1 years of Broken marriage, my husband left me with two kids . I felt like my life was about to end I almost committed suicide, I was emotionally down for a very long time. Thanks to a spell caster called Dr Mark, which I met online. On one faithful day, as I was browsing through the internet,I came across a lot of testimonies about this particular spell caster. Some people testified that he brought their Ex lover back, some testified that he restores womb,cure cancer,and other sickness, some testified that he can cast a spell to stop divorce and so on. I also came across one particular testimony,it was about a woman called Alandre,she testified about how he brought back her Ex lover in less than 2 days, and at the end of her testimony she dropped Dr Mark e-mail address. blessedlovetemple@gmail.comAfter reading all these,I decided to give it a try. I contacted him via email and explained my problem to him. In just 48hours, my husband came back to me. We solved our issues, and we are even happier than before. Dr Mark is really a gifted man and I will not stop publishing him because he is a wonderful man... If you have a problem and you are looking for a real and genuine spell caster to solve all your problems for you. Try High blessedlovetemple@gmail.com anytime, he might be the answer to your problems.

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  16. This is a very surprising testimony, I want you all to join in thanking Kiriji for the spell of love, because he is truly a man of his words. For many years I had a heart, every man who approached me ultimately never meant me. After my last experience with a man who disappointed me as usual, I started looking for a solution to complete my problem, then introduced my colleague at work to the Great Kiriji Love Spell Temple, then contacted him via his email. postal address; kirijilovespell@gmail.com, it took me a few days to answer me, and when he answered, I was instructed what to do to be free from spiritual bondage, I did everything he said, and today I am happy with my husband. The man who threw me out for no reason now came back to me in 3 days. He also helped my colleague bring her husband back when they divorced. This is his contact information; kirijilovespell@gmail.com or you can still contact him using your WhatsApp number: +2349020168697

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  17. I was not happy until i met Dr.Ogudugu through these details +2348063739701 or greatogudugu@gmail.com because my husband has left me and never had the intention of coming back home. But just within 48 hours that i contacted Dr.Ogudugu my marriage changed to the positive side, At first my husband came back home and since then my marriage has been more romantic than ever before

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  18. My husband changed dramatically towards me, doesn’t communicate anymore.He disrespects me and accuses me falsely of infidelity because of wicked gossip …but I’m simply AMAZED at the results of Dr. Ogudugu who did reunion love spell for me. Everything is going so well and EXACTLY how he said it would be. Even though it took 3 days to fully progress, it was so worth it because things are just about at perfection! How he took my situation and completely turned it around to give me exactly what I wanted is beyond me, but something I will never question and just be completely grateful, God Bless Dr.Ogudugu for turning sorrow happiness. Dr.Ogudugu contact; greatogudugu@gmail.com/WhatsApp +2348063739701

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  20. My husband and I separated recently. We’ve been married for six years now and it’s been an abusive relationship in all types of way. I want to figure out myself and fix my own issues so I can be a great mom and wife but I feel like is a waste of time to try to fix my marriage because it’s broken down and I’m emotionally drained and I just want to focus on my kids. And I feel it’s unfair for me to try to fix something that I’m the only one that’s putting effort into. I’m so confused. That had been my decisions until i came across an article in a blog on how Dr.Ogudugu (greatogudugu@gmail.com) helped many people to restore broken marriages/relationships. I quickly contacted him, and he told me what i should do, which i did immediately. Within 48hours my husband came back and the greatest part of it is that my husband has changed completely, he no longer abuses or insults me. Today, he has become a loving and caring husband.

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  21. This is a testimony that I will tell everyone to hear. I have been married for 4years and on the fifth year of my marriage, another woman had a spell to take my lover away from me and my husband left me and the kids and we have suffered for 2years until I met a post where Dr Osita have helped someone and I decided to give her a try to help me bring my lover back home and believe me I just send my picture to her and that of my husband and after 48 hours as she have told me, I saw a car drove into the house and behold it was my husband and he have come to me and the kids and that is why I am happy to make every one of you in similar to meet with her and have your lover back message her below. Please kindly contact her via email: (drositamiraclespell@gmail.com) Or Whats-app on +15088120454 Regards

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