Sunday, 18 November 2018

Deal or no Deal?

I am very annoyed we are leaving the European Union and wish that could be stopped.

But I am very annoyed about a lot of things. The current league position of St Mirren; Legal Aid pay rates; the weather. Me being annoyed about them really doesn't matter. They are facts of life and I just have to live with them. And so, at this point, is Brexit.

That need not have been the case. In the aftermath of the referendum, there could have been a re-alignment of the centre of British politics. Or a Party could have stood at the 2017 General Election on a platform of reversing Brexit or at least re-running the Referendum. But none did and the one which came closest, the Lib Dems, made little or no progress. Or public opinion could have so fundamentally changed that Parliament and Government felt emboldened enough to disregard the referendum result altogether. But that hasn't happened either.

Two big things have however happened. Firstly, as authorised by the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 the Government gave notice under Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union that we were leaving, setting that process starting and, secondly, by passing the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, the date of our leaving as set by the terms of Article 50 (29th March 2019) was encompassed into domestic law.

Now, Parliament is of course sovereign and it could repeal or amend the latter piece of legislation. And never mind the question of withdrawal of the Article 50, the terms of the article itself provide that, with agreement on both sides, the actual exit date can be postponed, if necessary indefinitely.

But there is simply no majority for such legislation in the current House of Commons. The Tories, even the most "remainery" of Tories believe that, unless it is re-run, (a point to which I will return) the result of the referendum must be respected. Putting the most innocent of interpretations on what the Labour leadership are up to, that is also there stated view. That is what both Parties said in their last General Election manifestos and there is nothing to suggest that, even if there were another General Election, they would be saying anything different. And, in any event, there is not going to be another General Election because there is equally no majority in the House of Commons to bring down the current Government and even less likelihood of that Government voluntarily submitting its fate to the electorate.

But there is also one other given. A (literally) handful of Tory nutters aside, everybody agrees we need to leave with a deal. For the avoidance of doubt, that "everybody" includes Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab. They just don't want the deal the Government has negotiated and believe, no matter how deludedly, that a different deal could be done. But, crucially, that "everybody" includes pretty much all of the Parliamentary Labour Party.They also would prefer a different, "better" deal but, unlike the fantasists on the Tory benches, are surely sanguine to the fact that had a "better" deal been available, Mrs May would surely have done it. There simply is no deal that is as good as our current deal but, for good or ill, the will of the electorate is to reject that and the stated position of both Government and opposition front benches is to respect the will of the electorate.

So what other options are there?

Well, in theory, there is a second referendum. But the theory simply does not match up with reality. What would the question be in that referendum? Mrs May's deal or remain would clearly be the preferred option of the remainers but that would undoubtedly disenfranchise that not insignificant section of the electorate who want neither. And Justine Greening MP (although just about nobody else) has suggested a multiple choice, transferable vote, referendum but that begs the question of how many questions? And if it was just Remain, Mrs May's deal or no deal, what way would Boris and Dominic Raab vote? While if it was Remain, Mrs May's deal or "neither", how would victory for the last option leave us any the wiser?

Anyway, how and when would this referendum take place? The process couldn't even start until Mrs. May's deal had failed to win Commons approval in mid December.. Even if a Commons majority could somehow be cobbled together, it would require Primary legislation. It couldn't possibly be held any earlier than the very eve of 29th March. With no idea what would follow from any result except a simple remain. It would inevitably have to come with postponing the 29th March departure if only, in a worst case scenario, to allow us more time for no deal. And there is no Commons majority for postponing 29th March! It is a chimera, an illusion, a hopelessly lost cause.

There is of course one other option, a different deal. Not the fantasy different deal of Johnson, Raab and the Pizza five but one the EU might actually agree to.  Its main partisan is Nick Boles MP, who wants EFTA. That's fine. EFTA is my own second choice. But how would that possibly be achieved either? International treaties are the domain of Governments, not Parliaments. But how do we get to this Government that would negotiate EFTA? It couldn't be led by Mrs May. It wouldn't be led by any Tory Brexiteer successor to Mrs May and it couldn't command a Commons majority if led by a non Brexiteer Tory successor to Mrs May. At least not without Labour support, which, shall we say, under a Corbyn leadership, it is never likely to enjoy. Matters would be as gridlocked as at present with the one remaining constant, that fixed date of 29th March.

The truth is that starting from here, on 18th November 2018, and without changing our potential exit date, we now have a binary choice. Mrs May's deal or no deal.

It's a terrible deal, much worse than we currently have, full of things which, even within its own terms, could be much improved. But it is the only deal in town and it is still a far, far better deal than no deal. It keeps the Irish border open, it stops Kent and the Pas-de-Calais from becoming lorry parks. It removes the very real threats of disruption to life saving medicines and indeed basic food supplies.

Best of all however, it leaves open the question of whether our future relationship with Europe lies in being further apart or, once again, closer together. A question which could then be answered in calmer, more considered, time.

I'll be astonished if, ultimately, it is not backed, albeit with gritted teeth, by all the Remainer Tories. It should be backed as well by all Remainer Labour MPs. For there is, in truth, no alternative and simply protesting otherwise demands more than protest. It requires process. And the time for process has long gone.




14 comments:

  1. Someone within Government clearly has their eyes on EFTA / EEA or else why did we not give notice to leave EEA when Article 50 was triggered.

    It's such an obvious compromise you have to think it will come to the fore once Mrs Mays deal is voted down.

    ReplyDelete
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      Hello everyone am Lucas Martinez from USA, after 15 years of marriage, me and my wife were living happily together we loved each other so much and I Loved my family they were my top priority, until one morning me and my wife had a little argument which I know every couples do have because there are no perfect couples in this world after the argument I went to work when I came home I couldn't find my wife and our kids she also packed her bags and that of the kids and left I tried calling her but I couldn't reach her I went to her friend's house but they couldn't tell me where to find her, I was frustrated I didn't know what to do I started drinking alcohol every day and night I stopped going to work it was a difficult thing for me because she and my kids means everything to me it's was like part of my body left me I couldn't function well, one day I was browsing on the Internet when I saw a testimony of someone testifying of a man called Dr Perfect and how he brought back his wife within 24 hours I didn't think twice about it I messaged him and told him everything that happened between me and my wife and he said he find my problem very easy for him to solve he also told me to trust him that my wife will come back and I told him I trust him and he asked for some information which I gave him, 24 hours later my wife came back home with the kids I was so surprised to see her it was like a dream to me she started crying and apologizing to me I told her it's okay I forgive her that am happy she is back we are now living happily together. If you are heart broken because your wife or husband left you email this powerful love spell caster called Dr Perfect via email

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      Bonjour tout le monde, je suis AMBER ERIN, j'espère que mon article sera lu et, espérons-le, aidera quelqu'un le long de la ligne. Je n'oublierai jamais l'aide que le formidable lanceur de sorts Dr Larry m'a rendu dans ma vie conjugale. Je suis mariée depuis 4 ans maintenant et mon mari et moi nous aimons très fort. après 4 ans de notre mariage, mon mari a soudainement changé, il avait une liaison avec une dame à l'extérieur, je le remarque alors je priais pour une intervention divine mais rien ne se passe. mon mari est rentré à la maison un jour, il a pris ses affaires et m'a laissé, ainsi que les enfants, chez sa maîtresse. À ce moment-là, j'étais confus de ne pas savoir quoi faire. J'étais tellement déprimée et j'ai dû dire à un ami qui m'avait raconté comment un spiritualiste l'avait aidée à régler ses problèmes conjugaux. Je l'ai donc contacté. Je lui ai expliqué mon problème. Après quelques consultations, il m'a expliqué ce qui n'allait pas avec mon mari et comment. il est arrivé qu'il rétablisse mon mariage mais je ne le crois jamais. À ma plus grande surprise 3 jours après avoir lancé le sortilège, mon mari est venu à mon bureau en me suppliant à genoux de me trouver une place dans mon cœur pour lui pardonner qu'il est vraiment désolé pour tout ce qu'il a fait pour moi et les enfants. .... maintenant je suis heureux de vivre heureux avec mon mari et mes enfants ... grâce à l'aide du grand spiritualiste Dr Larry, contactez-le avec n'importe quel problème et je suis sûr qu'il vous aidera à envoyer un courrier électronique au site assurancesolutionhome@gmail.com https: / /assurancesolutionhome.blogspot.com http://assurancesolutionhome.website2.me/ whatsapp lui sur +1 (424) -261-8520

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  6. i will love to share my testimony to you all the people in world i got married to my husband about 2 year ago we start having problems at home like we stop sleeping on the same bed,fighting about little things he always comes home late at night,drinking too much and sleeping with other women out side i have never love any man in my life except him. he is the father of my child and i don't want to loose him because we have worked so hard together to become what we are and have today .few month ago he now decided to live me and the kid,being a single mother can be hard sometimes and so i have nobody to turn to and i was heart broken.i called my mom and explain every thing to her,my mother told me about DR.azen how he helped her solve the problem between her and my dad i was surprise about it because they have been without each other for three and a half years and it was like a miracle how they came back to each other. i was directed to DR. azen on his email:(azentemple@gmail.com and explain everything to him,so he promise me not to worry that he will cast a spell and make things come back to how we where so much in love again and that it was another female spirit that was controlling my husband he told me that my problem will be solved within two days if i believe i said OK So he cast a spell for me and after two days my love came back asking me to forgive him i Am so happy now. so that why i decided to share my experience with every body that have such problem contact Dr azen the great spell caster on his email addresses (azentemple@gmail.com)or whatsapp Dr azen on (+2349038299828)

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  7. HOW I GOT MY HUSBAND BACK WITH THE HELP OF PRIEST WISDOM CONTACT ON WHATSAPP NUMBER +2348124644470

    This is my testimony about the good work of priest wisdom who help me.... I'm ann Earnis from norht carolina USA. And am sorry for putting this on net but i will have to, by this world best spell caster that brought back my husband who left me out for past 3 years, i eventually met this man on a blog site posting by one of is client for help, i explained everything to him and he told me about a spell caster that he had heard about and he gave me an email address to write to the spell caster to tell him my problems. In just 2 days, my husband was back to me. I just want to say thank you to this truthful and sincere spell caster, sir all you told me have come to pass and thank you sir. Please i want to tell everyone who is looking for any solution to their problem, i advice you to kindly consult this spell caster, he is real,he is powerful and whatever the spell caster tell is what will happen, because all what the spell caster told me came to pass. You can kindly contact him on: his email address is supernaturalspell1@gmail.com or directly on whasapp +2348124644470 or call. PRIEST WISDOM Blog Website: https://supernaturalspell1.blogspot.com/ or http://reallovespellcaster.over-blog.com .......////

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  8. Bonjour tout le monde, je suis AMBER ERIN, j'espère que mon article sera lu et, espérons-le, aidera quelqu'un le long de la ligne. Je n'oublierai jamais l'aide que le formidable lanceur de sorts Dr Larry m'a rendu dans ma vie conjugale. Je suis mariée depuis 4 ans maintenant et mon mari et moi nous aimons très fort. après 4 ans de notre mariage, mon mari a soudainement changé, il avait une liaison avec une dame à l'extérieur, je le remarque alors je priais pour une intervention divine mais rien ne se passe. mon mari est rentré à la maison un jour, il a pris ses affaires et m'a laissé, ainsi que les enfants, chez sa maîtresse. À ce moment-là, j'étais confus de ne pas savoir quoi faire. J'étais tellement déprimée et j'ai dû dire à un ami qui m'avait raconté comment un spiritualiste l'avait aidée à régler ses problèmes conjugaux. Je l'ai donc contacté. Je lui ai expliqué mon problème. Après quelques consultations, il m'a expliqué ce qui n'allait pas avec mon mari et comment. il est arrivé qu'il rétablisse mon mariage mais je ne le crois jamais. À ma plus grande surprise 3 jours après avoir lancé le sortilège, mon mari est venu à mon bureau en me suppliant à genoux de me trouver une place dans mon cœur pour lui pardonner qu'il est vraiment désolé pour tout ce qu'il a fait pour moi et les enfants. .... maintenant je suis heureux de vivre heureux avec mon mari et mes enfants ... grâce à l'aide du grand spiritualiste Dr Larry, contactez-le avec n'importe quel problème et je suis sûr qu'il vous aidera à envoyer un courrier électronique au site assurancesolutionhome@gmail.com https: / /assurancesolutionhome.blogspot.com http://assurancesolutionhome.website2.me/ whatsapp lui sur +1 (424) -261-8520



    Bonjour tout le monde, je suis AMBER ERIN, j'espère que mon article sera lu et, espérons-le, aidera quelqu'un le long de la ligne. Je n'oublierai jamais l'aide que le formidable lanceur de sorts Dr Larry m'a rendu dans ma vie conjugale. Je suis mariée depuis 4 ans maintenant et mon mari et moi nous aimons très fort. après 4 ans de notre mariage, mon mari a soudainement changé, il avait une liaison avec une dame à l'extérieur, je le remarque alors je priais pour une intervention divine mais rien ne se passe. mon mari est rentré à la maison un jour, il a pris ses affaires et m'a laissé, ainsi que les enfants, chez sa maîtresse. À ce moment-là, j'étais confus de ne pas savoir quoi faire. J'étais tellement déprimée et j'ai dû dire à un ami qui m'avait raconté comment un spiritualiste l'avait aidée à régler ses problèmes conjugaux. Je l'ai donc contacté. Je lui ai expliqué mon problème. Après quelques consultations, il m'a expliqué ce qui n'allait pas avec mon mari et comment. il est arrivé qu'il rétablisse mon mariage mais je ne le crois jamais. À ma plus grande surprise 3 jours après avoir lancé le sortilège, mon mari est venu à mon bureau en me suppliant à genoux de me trouver une place dans mon cœur pour lui pardonner qu'il est vraiment désolé pour tout ce qu'il a fait pour moi et les enfants. .... maintenant je suis heureux de vivre heureux avec mon mari et mes enfants ... grâce à l'aide du grand spiritualiste Dr Larry, contactez-le avec n'importe quel problème et je suis sûr qu'il vous aidera à envoyer un courrier électronique au site assurancesolutionhome@gmail.com https: / /assurancesolutionhome.blogspot.com http://assurancesolutionhome.website2.me/ whatsapp lui sur +1 (424) -261-8520

    ReplyDelete
  9. HOW I GOT MY EX LOVER BACK WITH THE HELP OF A REAL AND GENUINE LOVE SPELL CASTER DR PETER. CONTACT ON WHATSAPP +1(321)754-0649

    Good day ladies and gentle men, MY NAME IS AMAYA NYCOLE from UNITED STATE i want to give thanks to the great Dr Peter for bringing back my lover in a twinkle of an eye after been deceived by so many fake spell casters online who claim to be spell casters. But with the help of Dr Peter my prayers came through by him bringing back my ex lover to me within 24 hours which other spell casters could not do. I want to say a big thank you to Dr Peter for bringing back my happiness to me and if there is anybody who is in need of help i will advice you to contact Dr Peter for help as soon as possible because he will surely restore your lost joy. CONTACT THIS GREAT DR PETER TODAY FOR ANY KIND OF PROBLEM SOLUTION AND GET YOUR PROBELEM SOLVED 1OO% GUARANTEED AND ASSURED THANK YOU DR PETER. His private email:
    MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST@GMAIL.COM

    MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST@YAHOO.COM

    CALL/WHATSAPP +1(321)754-0649

    my youtube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV04v3z2GA0

    His websites: http://MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST.WEBSITE2.ME

    ReplyDelete