Sunday 10 January 2021

Told you so.

Last January, I wrote a blog pointing out that for the foreseeable future there is not going to be an independence referendum or indeed independence by any other means. Despite its logic being patent, everybody just ignored what was staring them in the face, not least the entirety (then) of the SNP. I sat down tonight to outline why again but experienced a sense of deja vu. So, in the interest of brevity, here is my January blog;https://ianssmart.blogspot.com/2020/01/new-year-new-world.html, my July blog https://ianssmart.blogspot.com/2020/07/much-ado-about-nothing.html, my September blog https://ianssmart.blogspot.com/2020/09/shortest-blog-ever.html and finally my November bloghttps://ianssmart.blogspot.com/2020/11/the-walking-dead.html . Glad to see those who make their living from writing about Scottish politics are finally catching up. 

I'm enjoying as much as anybody the Salmond/Sturgeon fall out. But it is a diversion. The idea that Sturgeon, the best known and popular Scottish politician by a country mile, might fall over whether she told the truth to the Scottish Parliament that first knew of the allegations against Alex Salmond on 29th March as opposed to 2nd April 2018 (remember that pre pandemic decade?) is the most wishful of wishful thinking. Even if a (very) few understand why that lie might be significant. 

But the exact terms of the SNP Manifesto for an election to Holyrood this year, whether in May or October? That is very interesting. 

The current Scottish Parliament was elected in May 2016. Only just over 18 months after the Independence Referendum. But there was already a significant part of the SNP membership demanding another referendum. Indeed the "All Under One Banner" marching organisation was set upon 12th October 2014! That is, if they weren't still insisting, apropos Trump, that the First Referendum had been stolen. Although even they couldn't entirely work out who by.

But, nonetheless, zoomer conspiracy theorists make up a significant section of the SNP rank and file. So they had to be thrown a bone. And that bone was that a vote to leave the EU would be a material change of circumstance justifying the demand for a second vote. This was an easy bone to throw. In May 2016 nobody thought the UK would actually vote to leave the EU. After all, every major Party in the UK was opposed to that. 

But jings, despite Nicola Sturgeon's own enthusiastic campaigning (illogically) for the very Brexit referendum result that would not  justify a second independence referendum, that is what happened, Supported by two in five Scottish voters and, more awkwardly still, by a majority of voters in Wales, also otherwise supposed to be being "dictated to by England". Nonetheless, in March 2017, Nicola did ask for her second referendum and Mrs May told her to go and raffle herself. And what then happened? Nothing happened. 

Fortunately the dilemma this might have presented to the SNP leadership was avoided for the moment by the 2017 election. Not only did the reverse the SNP suffer then cause even the bravest of bravehearts to ponder whether an immediate second referendum was actually a good idea, the UK wide election result cast doubt on whether we would actually leave the EU. That, and the usual boilerplate rhetoric, at periodic conferences, managed to disguise the continued dichotomy that the SNP, in attempting to block Brexit, were attempting to block their own rationale for having a fresh Independence vote.

However, the December 2019 election has changed everything. Not only has it restored momentum to the SNP it has also installed a UK Government with a solid majority on a manifesto expressly saying they will not consent to a second referendum. Oh, and in case you missed it, we then did leave the EU. 

Which would have placed the SNP leadership back in a hole were they not saved in a way they would never have wished by the Coronavirus pandemic. 

For while polling on the question has undoubtedly (in the abstract) moved in their direction, the population is not nearly as animated about imminently asking it again as are the Nationalist Rank and File.

Which brings me back to my question. What will the SNP manifesto say? You see, one suspects the leadership would like to stick with Plan A. "Give us a "mandate" and somehow the Tory Government will change their mind about agreeing to a referendum." And that would be it. But they won't get away with that because their own troops won't let them. They will insist on a plan B.

However there is no viable plan B. I outlined that in my blog last January. So the zoomers will have to be confronted with that before the election. That will be a bloodbath and one from which the SNP leadership might not emerge victorious. For there is a fair part of the SNP who would never be willing to accept that, having had and lost a referendum, the only way forward now is with the consent of the UK to another referendum. Which they are not going to get. But that is the truth of their situation, If the leadership win the internal battle, their manifesto will say they propose to have a referendum which they know they are not going to have. But the only true difference if they lose will be the three words "which they know". The public however would know that this second route presents a period of continuing constitutional (at least) chaos just as we struggle to  recover from Brexit and the pandemic. Is there a majority for this in Scotland despite momentary polling? Let's see. But there are good and rational electoral reasons the SNP leadership are reluctant even to contemplate a plan B.





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    I do not think electing Anas Sarwar is a good idea and I think Monica Lennon should be elected instead because a charismatic woman is needed to take on Sturgeon or her theoretical successor.
    Hopefully this is a realistic future political trajectory:
    Monica Lennon is elected and increases the number of Labour MSPs from 24 to 30 in May.
    Keir Starmer gets into power in 2024 with around 260 seats, propped by 40 SNP MPs and 20 LD MPs
    Then afterwards either a 2nd referendum doesn’t happen or if one does happen is won by the no side and Labour recovers to potentially the largest party in 2026.
    You are entitled to disagree with any of this.

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  26. Today makes it one years since Dr Kwale helped me with his powerful love spell to bring my man back to my arms. I’m really happy. In case you are depressed thinking of how to get back with your ex , I will kindly recommend Dr. Kwale to you now. Contact for Kwale via his email kwaletemple@gmail.com for his help.

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  27. Out of the abundance of the heart, the mouth speaks and here i am thankful to DR ISIKOLO for his great help to me. My name is Valentino Emil. My wife ex husband used a spell on my wife and she went back to him. I felt heart broken for i didn't know how to get her back. I did all i could do to get her back with her close friends but nothing worked out. So, in my place of work, i tried searching for help online and i found various testifiers of how a Doctor Isikolo has been faithful & helpful with his spells. I gave it a try by getting in touch with him and i explained my problem to him. Doctor Isikolo helped me with a spell for me that brought back my wife within 48 hours after i contacted him and it was indeed a miracle. He assured me that nothing can break us apart again and since this year August till this very moment, i have been full of joy with my wife. Contact him today for any kind of help, He is ready to help. via Email: isikolosolutionhome@gmail.com or his WhatsApp him on: +2348133261196.

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  28. Just finished up with Dr Okiti, very happy with the service which has left me with better than 20/20 vision. Highly recommend moving forward with Dr Okiti, the Temple is clean, modern and the optometrists supporting the practice are professional and knowledgable - definitely not my experience at some of the other, I met with prior. follow up was also fantastic.( https://Drokitispellhome.com )email okitilovespelltemple@gmail.com

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  29. Effective powerful love spell to get your ex Lover back now, Check on DR ISIKOLO. I have just experience the wonders of Dr.Isikolo love spell, that have been spread on the internet and worldwide, How he marvelously helped people all over the world to restored back their marriage and get back lost lovers, and also help to win lottery. I contacted him after going through so many testimonies from different people on how he helped to bring my ex lover back, i told him about my husband that abandoned me about 8months ago, and left home with all i had. DR ISIKOLO only told me to smile 3 times and have a rest of mind he will handle all in just 48 hours, After the second day Toni called me, i was just so shocked, i pick the call and couldnt believe my ears, he was really begging me to forgive him and making promises on phone. He came back home and also got me a new car just for him to prove his love for me. i was so happy and called DR ISIKOLO and thanked him, he only told me to share the good news all over the world. Well if you need an effective and real spell caster for any problem in your life you can contact DR ISIKOLO his email: isikolosolutionhome@gmail.com or you can also WhatsApp him on +2348133261196.

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  30. Life has not been easy with me after my marriage was broken when my husband filled for a divorced but I thank God for using Lord Zakuza who's like a God on Earth to get my broken marriage restored with his powerful spell. I suffered for depression for 6 months but today, I am so happy for getting to know Lord Zakuza for his spell has really made me to believe that of a truth spells are real and they work. I adhered to every bit of instructions given to me by Lord Zakuza for he promised me that he will make me happy and proud and really, all that happened and my husband came back to me with his knees on the ground begging me for forgiveness within 48 hours after I got in touch with him and now we are perfectly bonded again for life. I can boldly say to everyone out there that Lord Zakuza spells is really the best and most powerful. I'm forever grateful to him till the end of time. So, you can get connected with him on this number +1 (740) 573-9483 via WhatsApp/Call or Email via: Lordzakuza7@gmail.com

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  31. ·


    I'm so very grateful to Dr ogugu, for bringing my husband who left me for another woman, that moment my husband Left me I thought I lost everything until a friend of my gave me Dr ogugu WhatsApp contact, I messaged him and told him the pain I was going through so he told me that everything was going to be fine that if I have the faith and believe in him that the spell will surely work for me and my husband will surely come back home and he told me what to do, so those things were done and 24 hrs later my husband came back home begging for my forgiveness, am so happy and grateful to Dr ogugu if you need his help email him at solutiontempledrogugu@gmail.com or WhatsApp him +2347011196745

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  32. Lottery is something majority of the people in the world want to win, not only winning the lottery, but they want to win big, I have been playing the lottery for couple of years now, but I haven't really win big, personally I always think there is something behind all those winners who always win big, because my intense always tell me that every thing is possible, I manage to get in contact with one of the biggest lottery winner in the UK, I asked him about the success, and he referred me to a very powerful spell caster Dr. Todd he is indeed a great man who I explained to, without no hidden details , (I really want to win the lottery so bad) he put to work and few days letter he gave me numbers that never fails , these numbers was what I played and i won £3,000000,00, 3 Million pounds, (Dr. Todd) is blessed , you too can change your life too with his help, contact email: manifestspellcast@gmail.com https://manifestspellcast.wordpress.com

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